ThePanelist.com - Coming U.S. Recession: Choose Integrated Oil Companies

Coming U.S. Recession: Choose Integrated Oil Companies

Written by Miranda Marquit

Wednesday, 23 January 2008

A U.S. recession could mean trouble for Big Oil.

With the stock market in what can only be called "upheaval," some are beginning to wonder where Big Oil profits may end up. Oil prices are expected to continue to drop, thanks to an expected U.S. recession. Indeed, a U.S. recession is expected to result in decreased demand for oil as Americans cut back in an effort to save money. This is likely to have an effect on Big Oil in the coming weeks. Reuters reports on the new expectations for Big Oil profits:

'We also had a situation where refining margins and upstream margins peaked simultaneously and you don't often get that,' said Ropp. 'From here we would expect that there would be some downward earnings revisions and probably the stocks will reflect those.'

However, it is worth noting that Big Oil will still likely bring in adequate profits, despite the fact that stock prices are dropping. And if you don't have qualms about investing in Big Oil, it's a good idea to stick to the integrated oil companies. Exxon (XOM) is a valuation steal right now at below $80 a share (as long as you don't mind the company's blatant lack of interest in helping the environment). Other integrated companies that are likely to weather a U.S. recession -- and could make good choices for bargain hunters -- include Chevron (CVX) and BP (BP).

Companies that will be hit hard by a U.S. recession are smaller, independent oil companies like Apache (APA) and Anadarko Petroleum (APC). These companies lack the diversity that marks the integrated Big Oil companies, allowing them to make up for areas of weakness and expense.

Disclosure: I own none of the companies listed above.

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Photo:Ram Prasanth, Creative Commons, Flickr

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Miranda Marquit
		About the author:
		Miranda is journalistically trained freelance writer who enjoys working out of her home nestled in the beautiful Cache Valley in Utah.
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