| What Happens to the Stock Market if Obama Becomes the CEO of America? |
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| Written by Eben Esterhuizen | |
| Thursday, 16 October 2008 | |
Photo: iceman9294, Creative Commons, Flickr It's easy and counterproductive to politicize the stock market: Democrats would say the it's plunging due to eight years of Republican leadership. Republicans would counter that the free-falling stock market is pricing in a Democrat in the White House.
Research based on the past 80 years shows that American stock markets have performed better under Democrats, but the Republicans would correctly point out that the result is distorted due to the Internet revolution that took place during the Clinton administration. The first lesson in statistics: Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Usually, it would be incorrect to assume that a Democratic or Republican administration would push the stock market in a certain direction. But this time it's different.
I'll be the first to admit that it is pointless to predict the long-term outlook for the stock market, but I believe we are in for a strong bull market if Obama becomes president. Do I think that he is the answer to all of our problems? Most definitely, no. I don't want to put Obama on a pedestal, but I'm feeling bullish as an investor due to the underlying trends that are fueling his success. The same forces that are engineering an Obama victory will repair the American economy. I am a South African working in the United States and I will probably apply for citizenship if Obama is elected. It's not because I want to live in a country with Obama at the helm. It's because I want to live in a country that can go from the tyranny of George Walker Bush to the promise of Barack Hussein Obama in the space of eight years. It's because I want to live in a country where people can admit that something is wrong and fix it. It's because I want to live in a country where people believe in real change. These are the bullish forces that will shape the outlook for the stock market. Think of a struggling public company: if the CEO is removed by the board, the stock price tends to shoot higher because investors reward companies that own up to their problems and fix them. America depends on foreigners to fund its trade deficit, and these foreigners continue to do so because they still hunger for the "idea of America" - an open, optimistic, and revolutionary economy that can provide a solid return on investment. The mere nomination of Obama has greatly improved America’s image abroad, and may well inspire foreigners to continue to finance the American trade deficit until it is balanced. Ralph Waldo Emerson told a meeting of the Mercantile Library Association in 1844 that "America is the country of the future. It is a country of beginnings, of projects, of vast designs and expectations." It has been a lost decade for U.S. stocks because Bush destroyed that America. I'll be betting on a reversal when Obama is given the opportunity to rebuild the American dream. Comments
(6)
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written by David Neubert , October 22, 2008
I hope the stock market crashes like it did on the day after the JFK election - I will buy. It was the best time to buy for the next ten years.
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written by James Alexander , October 23, 2008
When people are able to govern themselves they will no longer need government.
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written by Bransby , October 23, 2008
The question shouldn't be whether the stock market will do well under Obama, but whether we should be worrying about whether the stock market does well. The bust happening now is a result of a boom born of fantasy economics, to suggest that we somehow need the stock market to find its feet and start growing again is to fail to question the fundamentals of that stock market, and why it's crashed the way it has. I would like to See Obama take a more pragmatic view of economics and business and realise that they are not our only ticket to a decent society, and realise that they are in reality only one part of it. A total faith in the ideology of the free market is what has brought about these unprecedented times, and what will lead to more people losing their homes and pensions, it would be nice to think that things won't carry on as usual once the dust has settled.
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written by Chamberlin , October 23, 2008
Eben:
I couldn't agree more. The election of Obama and the impending wave of Republicans being swept out of congress (AGAIN!) doesn't just represent a shift but a realignment. I think the middle class will find itself with a little more money all the sudden (due to lower taxes) and the economy will recover. Of course, the rich won't feel the same way but hey... they'll still be rich afterall. I hope my country has learned its lesson.
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written by Steve , October 27, 2008
*sigh* All so blind. I'm neither republican nor democrat. They are all liars. Fair Tax would be the best thing to do. Taxing success is never good. It hinders ingenuity and and drive to be more. How about those at the bottom that refuse to work get off their lazy butts. No more welfare!
I am not talking about those who have legitimate reasons to be out of work. Earn what you have.
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written by Not Steve , November 28, 2008
From Steve:"Taxing success is never good. It hinders ingenuity and and drive to be more. How about those at the bottom that refuse to work get off their lazy butts. No more welfare!"
Inventor: "Wow, this invention is worth 5 million dollars! After taxes I get to keep 3 million! Woo Hoo! ...Aw, shucks. There a doggone Democrat in the White House who raised taxes on people making millions, so I'll only get to keep 2.5 million- hardly seems worth the effort. Darn. Guess I'll just keep my day job." Yeah, that's EXACTLY how it works. Those Lazy People who are on welfare are not all what you claim them to be, either. Are there some who abuse the system? Without a doubt. A large percentage? Maybe. But if you've ever lived it, you'd know it's not something to let happen. For the cast majority of the people on welfare assistance, it isn't a choice. Stop assuming your Fair Tax would fix everything. It has it's flaws too, like hurting the people at the bottom the most. And making the wealthy even wealthier. Many people far smarter than you have looked at it and tried and failed to convince ANY government to try it. If you make $15,000 a year, you spend 100% of your income every year. Period. 20% flat tax means you pay 20% of your income, period. (20% is just a round number, not the current Fair Tax schema...just an example.) If you make $15,000,000 a year, 1.) you can shelter money in investments, 2.) you aren't going to spend everything you made in the year, i.e., you will save some. Assuming you save 20%, and spend the other 12,000,000, you only pay 16% taxes. Make more, pay less. Yes the millionaire payes more dollars, but every percent you take away from the $15K-a-year worker is a meal from their mouth. Nothing fair about that.
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