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Items Tagged With Banks

Freddie and Fannie Bailout: The $5.4 Trillion Contradiction
Written By: Eben Esterhuizen
2008-09-11 02:26:51
Secretary Paulson Freddie and Fannie Bailout: The $5.4 Trillion Contradiction
Photo: z_everson, Creative Commons, Flickr
"Housing finance in the U.S. has long depended on the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," writes Stephanie H. Giroux, TD Ameritrade's Chief Investment Strategist. "These mortgage lending giants were created by Congress in 1938 and 1970 to support the housing market, and currently hold $5.4 trillion of the roughly $12 trillion U.S. mortgage market. Over the past four quarters, Fannie and Freddie have posted losses totaling roughly $14 billion, as mortgage foreclosure rates continue to climb in the U.S.

The government’s intervention will result in the largest federal bailout in U.S. history, which is intended “to meet the objectives of market stability, mortgage availability and taxpayer protection," said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson."



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I Will Buy Investment Banks as They Buy the Democrats
Written By: David Neubert
2008-03-21 11:30:55
I'm looking for Wall Street to do well no matter who wins the election this year.

Three factors will keep the cash register ringing for investment banks:
1. Demographics of baby-boomers saving for retirement.
2. The cheaper dollar, meaning that foreign firms will be on a shopping spree for U.S. companies, which will help M&A advisory.
3. Mortgage portfolios that have been marked to market. When liquidity retuns to this market, portfolios of mortgages will start to show profits.

It would seem that Wall Street also hasn't forgotten that it is the second most regulated industry in the U.S. (after nucular energy) and that it needs to keep track of where its bread is buttered. Banks are betting that the butter will be spread by a Democrat in 2009.

On the next pullback, which I think is coming once all the shorts are done covering, I'll be looking to buy the investment banks cheap again. Look out for U.S. firms like Goldman Sachs (GS - $179.63), Lehman (LEH - $48.65), Morgan Stanley (MS - $49.67) and Merill Lynch (MER - $46.71) to continue to do well. I own the investment banks directly, but rather than pick individuals, the Exchange traded fund (IAI - $39.43) works well as a proxy.


Bread and Butter
Photo:ebby, Creative Commons, Flickr

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Level 3 Assets at Big Brokers - Not as Scary as People Say
Written By: David Neubert
2007-12-14 12:08:58
Felix Salmon at Portfolio.com dug up the ratios for level 3 assets at each major Wall Street broker.  This ratio is seen by some to be "scary."  I don't find it as scary as some.  The assets in Level 3 are mark-to-model.  Some of these could include complex derivatives for which there is no market that exactly hedges assets, hence the high risk in panic liquidation but not so much in cash flow. Their markets are worried about some of those with the highest ratios of Level 3 assets to capital.  Personally, I trust the risk managers at firms like Goldman Sachs (GS - $212.89), Morgan Stanley (MS - $50.88) and Lehman Brother (LEH - $63.03) to be able to correctly value these situations.  I do believe the market will continue to focus on this ratio, which will encourage firms to try to move more assets out of this category.



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The Lehman Brothers Collapse Hits the Real Estate Market
Written By: David Neubert
2008-09-25 12:07:36
The Lehman Brothers Collapse Hits the Real Estate Market
Photo: Financial Aid Podcast, Creative Commons, Flickr
If you read my blog earlier this week predicting a fall in New York real estate from the Lehman collapse, this big seller ($32 million) could be the first post-Lehman effect on the housing market. Too bad Lehman was the only investment bank not to get a Fed bailout or maybe this fantastic Hamptons place would not be for sale . . .

Disclosure: I was a Managing Director at Lehman, I left at the beginning of 2005. I am vested in their now worthless executive compensation plan. I own a condo in Manhattan that is certain to fall in value but I gotta live somewhere so I won't sell. I have not seen him since I left Lehman but I knew and liked Joe Gregory. He was part of the team of people who recruited me to Lehman Brothers from Morgan Stanley. I found him to be a direct and reliable manager and I am sorry he has to go through this recent crisis. If I know him, he will turn it around for himself and end up at some lucky organization in a productive capacity. After all, his personal losses are only financial. It is possible that he was planning to sell this house before Lehman collapsed.


Vikram Pandit Makes Rock Star Status
Written By: David Neubert
2007-12-12 15:50:58
Together with Madonna, Sting and Prince, Vikram Pandit, my old boss at Morgan Stanley, has acheived rock star status.  He's the only CEO I know of in the world who is referred to only by his first name.

I've been seeing a lot on CNBC and other media dissing the Citigroup Board for choosing Vikram Pandit as its (C - $31.53) CEO.  I used to work quite closely with Vikram at Morgan Stanley and I found him to be a thoughtful, insightful, extremely level-headed and intelligent manager.  He's one of the few managers I ever had who would understand every screw-ball idea I would throw at him. And believe me, I would dream up a lot of crazy derivative products. 

He has a conservative management style and considers every angle of a decision before moving forward.  I could almost see him going through his checklist on every decision, Profit Potential, Legal, Employee Morale, Reputation Risk, Credit Risk, Shareholders, Credit Rating, Sovereign Risk.  I can see him thinking the same way going forward at Citigroup.  Virkam was head of the Equity Division as we openned our Brazil office.  He aksed good questions, but unlike several other divisions at Morgan Stanley, was not so risk averse that we walked away from the potential.

So, I'm hanging on to my Citigroup.  If you've been watching my Citigroup stock purchases you know that I'm underwater on the position.  But I think the market's harsh treatment of Vikram right now is a symptom of a "beat up Citigroup" crowd mentality.

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