Items Tagged With David Neubert

Bank Default Insurance Seems Meaningless
Written By: David Neubert
2008-04-01 12:32:36
Check out this list from Bespoke Investor of the cost of bank default insurance. The highest costs go to Lehman and Merrill and other American Banks while the lowest prices are European.

I think this is the result of the implied government guarantee that most investors believe is far stronger in Europe.

However, now that the global financial system is so strongly intertwined I don't think the world financial system could handle a default resulting in the liquidation of any bank on the list.

So does that mean all these banks' default insurance should be trading at government rates?

Barrons Article on Gambling Stocks May Finally Provide a Catalyst for their Fall
Written By: David Neubert
2007-11-18 11:51:42
Throughout the mania of the expansion of the moneyed class in China, I've watched the gambling stocks with the frustration of "I should have seen this coming" as Las Vegas Sands (LVS - $118.76) made its meteoric rise. But for much of this year I've been thinking that the gambling stocks were overvalued, and didn't want to short them until I saw a catalyst that would drive them down. Perhaps this Barrons article that focuses on Las Vegas Sands (LVS - $118.76), Wynn Resorts (WYNN - $134.50 ) and MGM (MGM - $88.62) is it. Judy Weill, SeekingAlpha editor, provides a nice summary. If you want to read the actual article at Barrons.com, it will cost you.

I do think gambling will continue to have a great future for those who invest in it. As I heard Charlie Munger say at the 2007 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, gambling is a tax on the uninformed. But heck, the uninformed just keep getting richer. For now, these gambling stocks with a Chinese connection are way ahead of themselves. They are pricing in google-like growth rates in earnings. I do not think they will see that type of earnings growth, which can only mean that stock prices have to drop to meet reality.

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Beware Principal Protected Notes
Written By: David Neubert
2008-09-29 10:12:43
Principal protected notes are a bit of a misnomer.

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Boring Bonds
Written By: David Neubert
2007-07-09 08:01:39
"If you hooked the U.S. Treasury market up to an electroencephalograph, you would see it flatlining." My favorite quote today is from the Trader Daily website.

Yeah, I've been selling a few select stocks in the recent rally, but bonds have been painfully boring and, like a patient in the intensive care, you hope they stay that way because anything exciting means disaster.

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Read More About Boring Bonds...

Burning Man 2007
Written By: David Neubert
2007-08-23 18:32:21

Photo:herby_fr, Creative Commons, Flickr
I'm taking a week away from stock research, trading, credit meltdowns and blogging for The Panelist. I'm leaving the Default World and heading to the to a dry salt lake bed called Black Rock City.

I heard there might be Internet access. If there is, I'm going to try to report on how people spend money at Burning Man. Because far from the hippy-dippy laid back party everyone thinks it can be, I noticed people spending huge amounts of money at Burning Man. They spend it on art, on preparations, on vehicles, on sharing, on gifts, on music, on propane, on travel, on food and a whole range of equipment gear and supplies. Perhaps it should be called a Burning Money Man. As some artist figured out last year in this photo I took of the night of The Burn.

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