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Items Tagged With David Neubert

After a Loss Changing My Strategy on CountryWide (CFC)
Written By: David Neubert
2007-09-11 11:02:50
Felix Salmon at Portfolio.com has rightly trounced me for buying Countrywide Financial earlier this summer. I thought it was a good bet at the time, but I got out in August once things started to get confusing. I knew CFC would have to recognize losses from their higher funding rates and portfolio markdowns. But it was the diluting Bank of America investment and ensuing rally that made me realize that it would be awhile before I would be able to figure out what the equity component of this bank is really worth. I remember the old trader saying: "First loss is your best loss." Well I took losses in this one, and after many buys and sells over the month my final losses amounted to about six bucks a share and my last sales were around $19.00. I have since moved into various bets that make money if Countrywide survives. Which it will, with Bank of America (BAC) or someone else's help. I am happy to bet the company won't go bankrupt. I'm now into the preferred shares and shorting some deep out of the money puts.

The Countrywide Preferred B (CFCprB - $17.15) shares have a dividend yield of 9.9% (which, unlike the common dividend, the bank is likely to continue paying) and a par value of $25.00.

Historic Old English Mortgage Document

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Agriculture: The New Global Warming Bad Guy?
Written By: David Neubert
2007-12-18 08:31:05
We know that coal and petroleum companies are mining the raw materials that contribute to greater levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, but who else is contributing? Surpisingly, agriculture, as Mike Brune from Rainforest Action Network (RAN) says:
We launched a major new campaign taking on giant Agricultural companies ADM, Bunge, and Cargill for violating human rights and clearing rainforests to make way for massive soy and palm plantations. Clearing tropical rainforests for plantations, what we call agri-sprawl, generates more than 20 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. This is the reason why Indonesia is the world’s third-largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, and Brazil is #4.
Number one and two for now are The U.S. and China, respectively, but that order is expected to reverse soon.  I find it very interesting that the top two countries are digging up hydrocarbons stored in the Earth's crust and burning them, while Indonesia and Brazil are burning hydrocarbons (wood) sitting on the surface.


These agricultural companies trade at higher valuations (earnings multiples) but benefit from the same high prices of energy and global commodiites that are driving up the price of energy.  Higher commodity prices and demand mean more land is being put to work.  Since a dense rainforest holds more hydrocarbons (burnable substances), burning down the rainforest to build a farm relseases CO2.

 


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Anti War Protesters at Code Pink Lose Their Way
Written By: David Neubert
2008-02-14 16:33:32
Until now I have always supported the Anti Iraq War stance of Code Pink Women For Peace.  I think that the U.S. invasion of Iraq did nothing to make the country safe from terrorism, as well as needlessly cost taxpayers. Generally, it is an abuse of our patriotic young men and women in our military.  However, I think Code Pink has gone too far with their protest of a Marine recruiting station in Berkeley, California

Americans who join the armed forces do so out of a respect for democracy and pride in community.  To yell at and harass those who might join the military is missing the point.  Code Pink organizers should be attacking the politicians that make decisions, not the military that executes them.  It would seem that Code Pink's leaders have lost their way on this one just like the Bush Administration lost its way and ignored intelligence and military advisors back in 2003.

Code Pink, please do not be as arrogant as our President.  Please do not make me ashamed of you the way I am ashamed of our president.  Please come to your senses; do not aim your attacks at the wrong target.

Disclosure:  I have financially, supported Code Pink for the past few years.  I have never been a member of the military.  I have friends at Code Pink but I don't think I can support the organization if my money goes to shaming our military personnel.


Anti-Corporate Bad Taste Satire at Burning Man
Written By: David Neubert
2007-08-30 18:47:13
Well, there is Internet connection here but it's slow.  It seems to have gotten better over the week.  My camp, Entheon Village, has been great and set up a repeater.

The Barbie Death Camp (and Wine Bar) Satires Mattel Inc's (MAT - $21.68) top selling doll of all time, Barbie, being cast into ovens.  You can't tell by the photo but they are being driven to the "ovens"  by GI Joe and Ken dolls.   Because we, at The Panelist, love corporate satire of all kinds - even if it is in bad and insensitive taste, I have to approve of this project.  I don't think that The Barbie Death Camp (the sponsor of the art project has the same name as the art), needed to use the word "Auschwitz" in the name because the irony was already clear.

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As Countrywide Approaches Book Value, I Added to My Position
Written By: David Neubert
2007-08-02 17:16:51
The Latest at Countrywide Financial (CFC)People are recommending shorting Coutnrywide.  It has been my experience that the shorts, much like bubble buyers, tend to pile in at the bottom.  This is where fundamental value based research can help - I've been keeping track of book values of several of the large banks that seem to me will survive the whole tighter lending standards and liquidity dislocation in mortgage backed and corporate leverage buyouts. 
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