Is the Sky Falling? (Continued) Written By: Mark Bershatsky 2008-03-27 11:14:40 In a previous post, I had mentioned how our current financial crisis has rippled across other sectors of the U.S. economy and overseas, sending noticeable shock waves across global financial markets. The critics and "doom and gloomers" are all lined up and waiting to unleash a heavy dose of "I told you so" to investors that will supposedly get burned if they don't allocate their money properly, however I think much of this pessimism is overhyped.
Long Term Interest Rates: Breaking Out or in a Range Written By: David Neubert 2007-06-13 09:36:14 It seems like just weeks ago the financial media was looking for the coming drop in fed funds rate by the Fed. Real Estate was dropping and the economy was slowing. This time last year, inflation was on the rise and interest rates were going up. I like to use the financial media as a contra indicator on bonds.
Long Term Investor Who has Made Good Calls is Selling TIP Written By: David Neubert 2008-03-10 11:00:58 A reader who likes to send me his portfolio decisions has had a better call on the markets lately. What I like about him is that he sees his portfolio as an investment, is very critical of US government policy, is nervous about the debasing of the dollar via inflation and takes long term views. He's older than I am and a professor from the North, but I'll call him Stevie.
Stevie has been a big fan of TIPS via the Inflation Linked Exchange Traded iShares Fund (TIP- $111.43), but recently he's been selling and reallocating.
After selling some more TIP and splitting the proceeds between cash and closed end funds that focus on dividend paying stocks, here is his portfolio:
7.5% equities via four closed end funds 27.5% cash 40% TIP funds 20% real estate 5% gold coin
Markets Falling, Volatilities Expanding: Time to Sell Puts Written By: David Neubert 2007-06-07 16:22:27 With the market falling and volatilities expanding, I was selling puts today on stocks/securities. Yes, I am a contrarian! I sold puts on my safety securities that I wish would fall enough so that I could buy them. These are not speculations, I sold a series of puts on things that have real value and little chance of falling apart. The one thing all three of these instruments have in common is that they are basically pools of fixed income assets.
Neubert Top 15 Positions for March Month End 2008 Written By: David Neubert 2008-04-06 18:34:06 This month's top 15 is full of financials and oil. I like to bottom fish, and this month it finally worked. My exposure to big bad oil is starting worry my wallet and my heart.
1. Lehman Brothers (LEH - $44.05): Now that more than three years have passed since I left Lehman Brothers I feel it is appropriate to disclose my position in the investment bank. I have to admit that this has not been a great quarter to own any investment bank, but I have a lot of confidence in Lehman management and think that they understand the risks inherent in liquidity that funding an investment bank requires. In other words, they are no Bear Stearns.
