Items Tagged With Futures

BernankeTestimony at Congress and Inflation
Written By: David Neubert
2007-03-28 11:42:07
I am short U.S. Bonds. I'm short both the ten year futures and the long bond futures. Last week's announcement by the Fed FOMC dropping the hawkish language about inflation made me nervous about my position but I wanted to wait until I heard Ben Bernanke's testimony this week to decide if I would decrease the size of my short.

Betting on a Higher S&P 500 for December
Written By: David Neubert
2007-12-05 16:06:07
I bought some S&P 500 futures betting on a higher U.S. stock market for December. We have lower interest rates, a cheap dollar and U.S. companies at the cheapest forward price earnings ration in years. What's not to like? Do I have a stop on my position? You bet! I don't want to take a pullback of more than 1% on this market.

My hedge? I bought some puts on the Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM - $159.44). My thought process is that only a global meltdown could hurt my position. The U.S. is poised to outpeform in December.

Disclosure: While I am long 160 strike puts on EEM, I am also short some 100 strike puts.

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Extra Disclaimer: Futures and options are highly leveraged instruments. Do no use them unless you can afford to lose your entire initial investment and then some extra on top of that. Do not play with matches around gasoline either.

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Boring Bonds
Written By: David Neubert
2007-07-09 08:01:39
"If you hooked the U.S. Treasury market up to an electroencephalograph, you would see it flatlining." My favorite quote today is from the Trader Daily website.

Yeah, I've been selling a few select stocks in the recent rally, but bonds have been painfully boring and, like a patient in the intensive care, you hope they stay that way because anything exciting means disaster.

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Cut My Short Bond Positions in Half this Week
Written By: David Neubert
2007-06-08 15:48:09
I cut my short 10-year note and long bond treasury futures positions in half this week. It seems we are at an emotional extreme around fears of a rate increase. This is about where we were last month with fears of a rate cut. I'm still buying the argument that we are in a trading range on the ten-year treasury yield from 4.7% to 5.25%. But if we do get a break out, it will be towards higher rates (lower bond prices). That's why I still have half my short position on.

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Long Term Interest Rates: Breaking Out or in a Range
Written By: David Neubert
2007-06-13 09:36:14
It seems like just weeks ago the financial media was looking for the coming drop in fed funds rate by the Fed. Real Estate was dropping and the economy was slowing. This time last year, inflation was on the rise and interest rates were going up. I like to use the financial media as a contra indicator on bonds.

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