Items Tagged With Interest Rates

3 Reasons Why the U.S. Will Avoid a Recession
Written By: Eben Esterhuizen
2008-04-06 21:45:08
It was refreshing to read Anatole Kaletsky's contrarian piece in Sunday's London Times, and it should be required reading for all investors. "I am probably the only economist left in the world who still believes that a U.S. recession is likely to be avoided," says Kaletsky. Given the massive amount of doom and gloom in the financial press, it's important to try to understand the contrarian argument.

BernankeTestimony at Congress and Inflation
Written By: David Neubert
2007-03-28 11:42:07
I am short U.S. Bonds. I'm short both the ten year futures and the long bond futures. Last week's announcement by the Fed FOMC dropping the hawkish language about inflation made me nervous about my position but I wanted to wait until I heard Ben Bernanke's testimony this week to decide if I would decrease the size of my short.

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Boring Bonds
Written By: David Neubert
2007-07-09 08:01:39
"If you hooked the U.S. Treasury market up to an electroencephalograph, you would see it flatlining." My favorite quote today is from the Trader Daily website.

Yeah, I've been selling a few select stocks in the recent rally, but bonds have been painfully boring and, like a patient in the intensive care, you hope they stay that way because anything exciting means disaster.

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Cut My Short Bond Positions in Half this Week
Written By: David Neubert
2007-06-08 15:48:09
I cut my short 10-year note and long bond treasury futures positions in half this week. It seems we are at an emotional extreme around fears of a rate increase. This is about where we were last month with fears of a rate cut. I'm still buying the argument that we are in a trading range on the ten-year treasury yield from 4.7% to 5.25%. But if we do get a break out, it will be towards higher rates (lower bond prices). That's why I still have half my short position on.

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Dispelling U.S. Debt Myths
Written By: David Neubert
2007-04-05 11:04:32
Wondering who really caused the giant U.S. government deficit?
Since WWII, conservative Republicans seem to be worst for the government debt, while Clinton (a conservative-ish Democrat) seems to be best. Found this interesting* history of the U.S. debt compiled from by blogger Steve McGourty using data in Microsoft Encarta and the 2006 U.S. Govt Office of Management and Budget .

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