Items Tagged With Interest Rates

Recession Fear and Dollar Loathing in Las Vegas
Written By: Eben Esterhuizen
2008-02-05 23:09:18
Judging by today's selling frenzy on Wall Street, it looks like the market has finally started pricing in a worst case scenario for the U.S. economy. And the time has come to ask some important questions.

Is it safe to say that the recession is finally here? If we are in a recession, how long will it last? Will heavy consumer debt, a growing federal budget gap, and rising prices make this recession worse than Americans have experienced over the past two decades? Will the situation evolve into the worst financial crisis since World War Two (legendary investor George Soros seems to think so)?

The Fed Interest Rate Cut is One Ingredient in the Recipe for Stagflation
Written By: David Neubert
2007-09-19 09:51:34
How am I positioning for the Fed Interest Rate Cut?

I continue to buy overweight financials, especially the big ones like Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs (GS) and Lehman Brothers (LEH). I'm even short some puts on the Financials ETF (XLF). In the short term, financials have to go higher as hedge funds cover shorts and, more importantly, mutual fund managers buy to correct the underexposure to the financial sector. Most Fed easing cycles imply very good returns if you buy just as they begin. The exceptions? The last one. I'm hold financials for the short run but I'm going to lighten up on these as this rally progresses. Why? The recipe is in place for some stagflation.

Stagflation is a period of inflation and low or no growth in the economy. The last time this existed was back in the 1970's in Britain and the US.

Add Comment (3)

Thinking About The Fed: It's Late Thursday Night and I Can't Sleep
Written By: Eben Esterhuizen
2007-08-31 00:41:02
Someone once joked that the best cure for insomnia is to get a lot of sleep, but somehow I don't find that funny at the moment. If you're a homeowner in pain, you might also be struggling to sleep. You might be dreaming of a parallel world where Fed chairman Ben Bernanke saves the day, but you're more likely to wake up with a nasty housing market hangover when Bernanke speaks on the housing market tomorrow morning at 10am ET.

Add Comment (0)

Will We Lose Our "Stocks for the Long Run" Religion?
Written By: Eben Esterhuizen
2008-09-13 18:10:01

Despite all the doom and gloom seen over the last year, the S&P 500 index is still looking expensive. At Friday's close the benchmark index traded at a Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.30, much higher than the 17.17 ratio seen a year ago when the downturn started. FYI - the long term average P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is around 15. With some commentators proclaiming that we are facing the greatest crisis since the Great Depression, why do stocks remain expensive?

Add Comment (0)

There are 19 items tagged with Interest Rates. You can view all our tags in the Tag Cloud

<< Start < Previous 1 2 3 4 Next > End >>

Page 4 Of 4

Climate

Women

Neubert's Trades

Social Culture

Technology

Items Tagged With Interest Rates

Finance

Culture

Financial Bloggers

RSS Feed Manager

Members