Items Tagged With Investing Ideas/Stocks

Betting on a Higher S&P 500 for December
Written By: David Neubert
2007-12-05 16:06:07
I bought some S&P 500 futures betting on a higher U.S. stock market for December. We have lower interest rates, a cheap dollar and U.S. companies at the cheapest forward price earnings ration in years. What's not to like? Do I have a stop on my position? You bet! I don't want to take a pullback of more than 1% on this market.

My hedge? I bought some puts on the Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM - $159.44). My thought process is that only a global meltdown could hurt my position. The U.S. is poised to outpeform in December.

Disclosure: While I am long 160 strike puts on EEM, I am also short some 100 strike puts.

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Extra Disclaimer: Futures and options are highly leveraged instruments. Do no use them unless you can afford to lose your entire initial investment and then some extra on top of that. Do not play with matches around gasoline either.

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Big Oil Second Quarter Earnings: Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Written By: Miranda Marquit
2007-07-28 08:10:21
It finally happened. Despite a stock price that is through the roof (but dropping as of this writing), Exxon (XOM) is reporting that second qaurter earnings are down. Indeed, Big Oil companies like Exxon and Chevron (CVX) are finding all sorts of competition to reduce their oil exploration territory. And one of the big players is China. MarketWatch explains how state-owned oil companies, along with increased demand and global instability, are starting to stymie the growth of Big Oil:

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Big Oil Still Reigns Supreme
Written By: Miranda Marquit
2007-07-13 11:01:13
Big Oil show no signs of going away, as it dominates the Fortune Global 500 list.

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Blackstone IPO Surges, Wall Street Tanks
Written By: Thomas Chenoweth
2007-06-22 12:20:24

Investors saw big losses in the markets today, except for the privileged few who rode the Blackstone Group LP (BX) to nice gains on its first day of trading.

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Chubb - Time To Buy
Written By: David Neubert
2007-09-19 11:20:36
Chubb (CB - $52.95) has been dead money for the last two years. I think it's the best managed of the insurers. But I usually wait for some kind of disaster to push the market down before I buy a property and casualty insurer. People hate this sector right now because property and casualty rates have been falling after the big runup after Katrina. Now we've gone a couple years without a huge disaster and prices are really coming down.

Many who watch the sector are worried that prices do not reflect the risk. They are right but the discount being applied to Chubb is just too much. It has a trailing p/e of only 8.7 right now. So I'm going to add a bit to my position in the next few days, maybe right after I write this. What is my risk? a big hurricane or earthquake. That's true and I really hope that doesn't happen because it means people suffer - and some payouts for Chubb. But a disaster like that and claims for Chubb would also mean a return to higher insurance rates which would also be good for Chubb.

Disclosure: I own Chubb (CB). Chubb is my property insurer for my New York Condo. I think I pay too much but since they have a reputation for paying claims quickly and without fighting much I'll stick with them.

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