Fed Makes a Gift to JPMorgan Written By: David Neubert 2008-03-17 14:13:09 I bought Bear Stearns (BSC - $4.68 - down 85%) on Friday for $33.00. I thought there would be some kind of rescue package. I was wrong. Here, Portfolio.com blogger, Felix Salmon summarizes some of my comments and those by others. Instead, what I got was The Fed exacting their revenge on Bear at my expense. I also benefited by the gift that the Fed gave to JPMorgan (JPM - $40.01 up 10%). Basically, what has happened is that the market (and I) didn't expect the government to play favorites and give such a valuable asset away at the shareholders' expense.
Did Bear Stearns deserve to go away? I don't doubt it. It would seem they didn't understand their own risks and didn't treat others nicely. As someone who competed against and interviewed a couple times at Bear Stearns over my career, I think I have a fairly common opinion of the firm. They were not very good citizens in Wall Street. For example, as a free rider they did not pitch in on the 1998 rescue of LTCM, though they did benefit. They culture at Bear Stearns was one of extreme self interest, which promoted chaos.
I know several employees at Bear who are wiped out. Stock vesting at Bear Stearns was cliff vesting over three years. This means that had to stay with the firm for three years to get your stock. Compensation at Bear (and most of Wall Street) is between 25%-65% in stock. So we are looking at a least a year's worth of earnings for many Bear Stearns employees being transferred to JP Morgan shareholders. I feel bad for these guys. They weren't expecting this. I know many others may not feel bad for this unlucky group. They are very employable and it's hard to get anyone to feel bad (except for the Bush administration) for millionaires getting pay cuts.
Photo:Photobunny, Creative Commons, Flickr
This is an actual conversation I had with the most prolific blogger I know, Felix Salmon. He has been churning out material about the JPMorgan takeover of Bear Stearns. He helped me better explain why Bear Stearns was trading over the JPM buyout price of $2.00 a share. He used our discussion to produce a well thought out explanation of how Bear Stearns equity might function as a CDS proxy .
neubert (11:41:39 AM): fun day yesterday. felix (11:42:01 AM): hoo yeah felix (11:42:09 AM): do you still have your BSC @ $7? felix (11:42:19 AM): I hope you didn't take my advice to sell @ $4! neubert (11:42:31 AM): sold calls on at struck at $10 for $2.25. felix (11:43:04 AM): when? neuber (11:43:25 AM): just now felix (11:44:04 AM): expiry? neubert (11:44:12 AM): oct and april
Next for Mortgage Lending: Green Mortgages Written By: Miranda Marquit 2007-09-14 14:23:01 Can green mortgages help the lending industry overcome the subprime market crash?
I continue to buy overweight financials, especially the big ones like Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs (GS) and Lehman Brothers (LEH). I'm even short some puts on the Financials ETF (XLF). In the short term, financials have to go higher as hedge funds cover shorts and, more importantly, mutual fund managers buy to correct the underexposure to the financial sector. Most Fed easing cycles imply very good returns if you buy just as they begin. The exceptions? The last one. I'm hold financials for the short run but I'm going to lighten up on these as this rally progresses. Why? The recipe is in place for some stagflation.
Stagflation is a period of inflation and low or no growth in the economy. The last time this existed was back in the 1970's in Britain and the US.
