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Neubert's Top 15 Positions for October 2007
Written By: David Neubert
2007-11-02 01:20:41
3M Makes Scotch Tape
Photo:sneakums, Creative Commons, Flickr
Top Fifteen Listed/Tradeable Holdings as of October 2007 month end.  Prices as of November 1, 2007.

I've been spending much of the month in the beautiful autumn colors of the Berkshires of Massachusetts.  My portfolio has not changed much but check out below to see where it has:

1. Ishares Inflation Protected Treasuries ETF (TIP - $103.42) - Still my biggest disclosed position but I sold a quarter of it today.
2. Chevron Corp (CVX - $89.04)  Oil up and stock down.  I don't understand so I hold. According to their press releases this past month they are really making an effort at renewable energy.
3. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A - $131,250) - Wish I owned more.  This just keeps going up huge.
4. Conoco Philips (COP - $83.21) See my comments on CVX, except they don't have the same commitment to alternative energy.
5. B P Prudhoe Bay Oil RoyaltyTrust (BPT - $76.89) This is an embarrassment of riches.  I wouldn't buy this now but I have so much in capital gains this year that I can't sell till 2008.  My least socially conscious investment.
6. Usiminas S.A. Brazil ADR (USNZY - $77.80) This Brazilian steel company is my favorite in the world and has everything going for it.  I keep holding and collecting fat dividends.
7. Citigroup (C- $38.51) I bought more this month on the way down but above today's price; ouch.  I remain committed to this franchise through the pain.  Besides, with trillions in assets, the Fed is my best auditor of this company.
8. Freeport Mcmoran Copper & Gold (FCX - $112.05) Gold is not up; it's the dollar that is down.
9. Vanguard Pacific ETF (VPL - $73.68) Asian exposure. 
10. Anglo America PLC UK ADR (AAUK - $32.78) Cheapest major global mining company.
11. Chubb Corp (CB - $52.00)  No hurricanes and the cheapest and highest quality of the property and casualty insurers.  I'll probably buy more if it falls.
12. Andarko Petroleum. (APC - $57.24) - this Texas-based oil exploration company went up so much it ended up in my top 15.  They are so cheap. I should sell BPT and buy more APC.
13. 3M (MMM - $83.90) Solid and creative company.  They had a tough earnings report.  I'm sticking with 3M.
14. General Electric (GE - $40.34) - Multinational benefits from falling dollar.  They are trying (but not yet there) to remake themselves into an eco-friendly company of the future.  I'm holding but wouldn't buy more above $37.00.
15.  Microsoft (MSFT - $37.06) Huge run-up in the last few days.  This giant is finally getting recognition for their global exposure (falling dollar helps) and increasing revenues from tech spending.

 

Off the List since last month:
Bank Of America (BAC - $45.71) I cut part of the position, as I had to be prudent with my bank exposure. If I have to hold a falling money center giant, I prefer Citigroup.
Pfizer Inc (PFE - $23.95) - stock is up a bit since last month but relative performance is weak.  I continue to hold this cheap super giant pharma until new information changes my opinion.


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Out of Yahoo and Other Options
Written By: David Neubert
2008-03-06 08:29:18
Realizing that in the short run Yahoo management doesn't seem to have my best interest at heart, I sold all of my Yahoo! (YHOO - $28.67 ) shares at around $28.75, which allows me to lock in most of the merger premium if inaction by Yahoo management drives the stock back to $20.  Just in case, I did pay just over a buck for 30 strike calls.  If someone does pay up, I will at least get to participate in the upside. 

Randall Smyth makes an interesting case for a potential eBay (EBAY - 26.74) Yahoo tie up.  While the tie up may be good for the competitive marketplace, it doesn't seem to do as much for Yahoo shareholders as Microsoft (MSFT - $28.12) was willing to do.

For my favorite and most articulate coverage of Microsoft Yahoo Merger, see Henry Blodget at Silicon Alley Insider.

Disclosure: I own EBAY and MSFT.  I own 30 strike calls on YHOO that expire in April and July.  I am short (sold) January 2009 40 strike calls on eBay.
Out of Yahoo
Photo:Sigalakos, Creative Commons, Flickr



What to With My Yahoo Shares in the Face of the Latest Microsoft Letter
Written By: David Neubert
2008-04-06 17:20:24
I like what blogger Thomas Hawk says about what will happen to Yahoo (YHOO) if they ignore Steve Ballmer's exploding offer to buy the company from the board.

In fact, if Microsoft really wanted to play hard ball at this point they could simply give Yahoo 48 hours to accept the terms or pull the offer off of the table. With the offer off of the table Yahoo stock would immediately drop. The lawsuits would take place driving the stock down further and if Microsoft just waited 6 months or so they might be able to end up buying the stock in the end for somewhere around $8 a share.



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What's Next for Bill Gates?
Written By: Drew Bader
2008-01-14 04:00:11
When most people think of retirement, early bird dinner specials in Florida or Arizona come to mind, for they are the expected destinations of the recently retired. Now that Bill Gates has just made his final appearance at the CES, the world should ask what’s next for Gates instead of what is the future of Microsoft (MSFT - $34.22).


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Yahoo Board Forced into Auction Mode by Microsoft: Too Early to Take Profits in Yahoo
Written By: David Neubert
2008-02-10 09:01:10
So many bloggers are negative on the Yahoo! (YHOO - $29.20) board and management.  Om Malik calls the Yahoo! board asleep at the wheel. I've been following and supporting fund manager Erik Jackson's small guy Plan B campaign since he started back in 2006.

As far as my trades go, I've bought Yahoo every time it gets into the mid 20's and sold it via calls written at 30 (or thereabouts) for a couple of years now. I called Yahoo! looking ready for a sale on January 1st of this year.  I saw the company as cheap in the low 20s and never had much confidence in management to monetize the fantastic online brand they have.  So while I feel like a hero for noticing the low price and naming Yahoo as a buyout target, I missed when I specifically said that Microsoft (MSFT) was an unlikely buyer. Well, I'd rather make money than be right.

So the board will reject Microsoft's offerNow what?

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