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Items Tagged With MSFT

If Yahoo Is Being Prepped for Sale, At What Price?
Written By: David Neubert
2008-01-01 13:54:47
Ashkan Karbasfrooshan writes about a potential sale of Yahoo.

But with a market cap of $33 billion (minus $2 billion in cash) that doesn’t leave many potential buyers with enough market cap to swallow Yahoo. All the buyers/partners that are big enough, like Microsoft and Google, are already competing with Yahoo, so they aren't really buyers. I think the sale could happen, but at a lower price. A potential sale/merger puts a floor on the stock, but I don’t think it provides much upside.

Disclosure: I am long YHOO and MSFT. I am short 25 and 35 strike calls on YHOO.



Microsoft Celebrates If Yahoo Fumbles
Written By: David Neubert
2008-03-12 15:02:34
Eric Savitz asks, "What will Microsoft do if Yahoo Whiffs Q1?"  My bet is that the market will think Microsoft (MSFT -$28.63) is paying too much for Yahoo (YHOO- $28.45) and perhaps will be hit and go down a buck or two.  What SHOULD Microsoft do?  CELEBRATE.  Yahoo still has huge web traffic and a killer franchise with billions of eyeballs.  The fact that they can't make good money off that AGAIN just means they need Mr. Softy more than ever.  Microsoft should lower their bid and I would think that MSFT would rally on the fact that Yahoo just got cheaper.

Silicon Alley Insider, Henry Blodget's take on Yahoo Earnings Scenario.

Thomas Hawk on Why Microsoft should lower their bid.


Disclosure:  I own MSFT.  I am short March $31 calls against a 1/5 of my position.  I do not own YHOO.  I do own April and July $30 strike calls on YHOO.  See why I sold all my Yahoo and bought calls?

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Neubert Top 15 Positions for March Month End 2008
Written By: David Neubert
2008-04-06 18:34:06
This month's top 15 is full of financials and oil. I like to bottom fish, and this month it finally worked. My exposure to big bad oil is starting worry my wallet and my heart.

1. Lehman Brothers (LEH - $44.05): Now that more than three years have passed since I left Lehman Brothers I feel it is appropriate to disclose my position in the investment bank. I have to admit that this has not been a great quarter to own any investment bank, but I have a lot of confidence in Lehman management and think that they understand the risks inherent in liquidity that funding an investment bank requires. In other words, they are no Bear Stearns.


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Neubert's Top 15 Positions for August 2008
Written By: David Neubert
2008-08-05 04:27:15
Neubert's Top 15 Positions for August 2008
Photo: trekkyandy, Creative Commons, Flickr
I haven't done this since March so be forewarned that there are a lot of changes. My portfolio has been ravaged by the meltdown of the financial sector, with special emphasis on Lehman (LEH). I also spent time buying the XLF on the way down and even at the bottom. My cost puts me about even on that trade. Much of my losses (but not all) in the financial sector have be offset by Big Oil and consumer non-durables companies.

1. General Electric (GE - $29.07): I think people will look back on the current price of GE and kick themselves for not recognizing the bargain of a lifetime in this company with so much diversification and exporting power in the face of a weak dollar. My average cost is about 10% above the current price at $32 - so clearly my average basis isn't at the super bargain price.

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Neubert's Top 15 Positions for November 2007
Written By: David Neubert
2007-12-05 11:55:19
Top Fifteen Listed/Tradeable Holdings as of November 2007 month end.  Prices as of December 5, 2007.

I've done a lot of trading this November.  I haven't been disclosing all of my trades but hopefully some of the changes in my top holdings will give you an idea.

1. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A - $147,500) (up from #3) - Wish I owned more.  This just keeps going up huge. The stock is benefiting from the earnings momentum in Property and Casualty insurance plus it's considered a safe place to hide given Warren Buffett's disklike of complex derivatives.

2. Chevron Corp (CVX - $89.04)  (same at #2).  Even with oil down the stock is still cheap. And since I don't like Exxon (XOM) for many reasons, Chevron and Conoco (COP) make up my oil exposure. 

3. Ishares Inflation Protected Treasuries ETF (TIP - $105.35) (down from #1) - I've sold some TIP at 106.75.  Plus some of the calls I wrote against the position have been excercised against me.  While I still think TIPS should make up an important part of any portoflio right now, I'm waiting for a pullback after my sales to pick up some more.

4. Conoco Philips (COP - $81.36 ) (same at #4) See my comments on CVX.  They have been getting some positive press because of their refineries that are projected to have better margins with oil prices falling in the last month.

5. B P Prudhoe Bay Oil RoyaltyTrust (BPT - $74.03)  (same at #5) This is an embarrassment of riches.  I wouldn't buy this now but I have so much in capital gains this year that I can't sell till 2008.  As the royalty owner of the oil under the ground in Alaska, BPT is my least socially conscious investment.

6. Citigroup (C- $33.69) (up from #7): The stock falls, I buy more.  Abu Dabi buys more.  People who average down are buying more.  I've had my fill.  Stock will rally on a CEO being chosen.  My favorite choice for CEO is my old boss at Morgan Stanley (MS), Vikram Pandit.


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