3 Reasons Why the U.S. Will Avoid a Recession Written By: Eben Esterhuizen 2008-04-06 21:45:08 It was refreshing to read Anatole Kaletsky's contrarian piece in Sunday's London Times, and it should be required reading for all investors. "I am probably the only economist left in the world who still believes that a U.S. recession is likely to be avoided," says Kaletsky. Given the massive amount of doom and gloom in the financial press, it's important to try to understand the contrarian argument.
China and the Olympics Hype Written By: Eben Esterhuizen 2008-07-31 02:49:53 Photo: china_puwa, Creative Commons, Flickr
What will China look like after the Olympics? This seems like a dull question that has been asked a million times by mainstream media. But what if we ask another question, one with a more sinister undertone: Is the Chinese government using the Olympics hype to cover up fundamental problems?
Commoditizing the Decoupling Theory Written By: Eben Esterhuizen 2008-03-09 23:59:39
The theory of decoupling suggests that emerging markets have broadened and deepened to the point that they no longer depend on the United States for growth, leaving them insulated from a U.S. recession.
Several analysts have claimed that decoupling is a load of rubbish, while others swear by it. One of the factors complicating the decoupling debate is the lack of agreement on a definition. If we look at the performance of emerging market stocks over recent weeks, it appears decoupling is a fairy tale. But arguing that a falling stock market signals an economic downturn is too simplistic since there are many factors that can lead to selling of stocks. That being said, decoupling is essentially a theory about how commodity prices react to a U.S. recession.
Photo:clry2, Creative Commons, Flickr
Economist Jeffrey Sachs: "We'll Get Out of This Mess" Written By: Michelle Haimoff 2008-03-25 22:42:35 I attended Charlie Rose’s interview of Jeffrey Sachs at the 92nd Street Y on Tuesday night. Jeffrey Sachs, who is the Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University and has been an economic advisor to governments in Latin America, Eastern Europe, the former Yugoslavia, the former Soviet Union, Asia, and Africa, as well as an author and the only academic to have been repeatedly ranked among the world's most influential people by Time magazine, is about as close to a household name as an economist can get.
